3rd Quarter of 2023 - Miami Real Estate Market
Our goal in making these videos is to provide value and help as many people as we can by providing real market data to give you a better insight into the local market. We do it to help you understand the current trends so you can make informed decisions about your home purchase and/or home sale.
3rd Quarter - We are taking a look at Closed Sales and Median Price/Sqft in some of the more popular areas of Miami first for Single Family Homes and then Condos. Let's jump right into the first graph... What does the graph show us?- 3rd Quarter vs 2nd Quarter for Single Family Homes in Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, Pinecrest and Miami Beach, specifically South Beach.
Let's look at the bottom line which shows the % Change in the # of Closed Sales and they all indicate a big decrease, with the exception of one, South Beach. Right away we can see that the 2nd Quarter was a stronger real estate market with more closed sales than the 3rd Quarter, we lost that forward momentum we saw from the 1st to the 2nd Quarter.
The interesting thing to highlight is that prices held strong & slightly increased across the board which just proves the resiliency of the market as demand remains high & supply low in these key markets. In the next graph we dive a little deeper & look at the Month to Month data to see if we can spot any trends & get a better sense as to what is happening in the Miami Real Estate market.
Now we can see it on a more granular level. We can definitely see the start of the 3rd Quarter was slower than the 2nd. Look at June versus July which shows a drop off across the board. Then July to August mixed results while August to September only South Beach saw an increase in sales. September's slow down we feel coincides with the end of summer vacations, kids going back to school and also we saw interest rates jump to 8%.
Since we had the data up here we wanted to take a quick look & take the average of the previous 6 month's of Pricing. While Price/Sqft is a key metric that we use as a guide it is definitely not the only thing we look at when looking to buy or sell homes. We found that Coconut Grove was almost $900 or $898/sqft, Coral Gables is almost $800 at $797/sqft, Pinecrest at $767, and South Beach at $1,871. Condos - Now we look at some of the areas that have the most condo buildings which we know well and have been working in for years: South of Fifth, Downtown Miami, Brickell and Coconut Grove.
If we look at the bottom line which shows the % Change in the # of Closed Sales & Pricing from the 2nd Quarter to the 3rd we see very similar results as the single family homes which shows a decrease in the # of Sales while pricing holding or increasing slightly. We did notice that Coconut Grove showed a large increase in pricing and we felt we needed to find out why.
What we found is that the newest building in the Grove is Park Grove which was built in 2018-2019, and we are now starting to see resales hit the market and are therefore trading at a premium since it is the newest building and most desired. Month to Month - Condos - Here we can see similar results as in single family homes. Look at June to July which is the end of 2nd Quarter and start of the 3rd which shows a drop in the # of sales. Then in August only South of Fifth saw an increase in sales from July while in September only Coconut Grove showed an increase in the # of sales from August but still lower than any of the previous month's.
In summary. We can clearly see that in the 2nd Quarter we had a stronger real estate market than the 3rd, as we seem to have lost the forward momentum we had going from the 1st to 2nd Quarter. The # of sales dropped across the board for both segments, condos and single family homes while pricing continues to hold on or slightly increase which again shows the strength of the market as we still have high demand and low supply/inventory in these key markets.
Even as interest rates hit 8% in September and we did see a pullback from Buyers we do feel that this trend of demand/supply will continue for the time being and keep the market going. What we can say with confidence is that the days of Seller's "sky-high" prices are over as the market is more sensitive to pricing. Note for Sellers... if you price your property correctly it will still sell very fast.
If you "try a price" it will not work in this market and will sit. Please listen to your real estate agents :) It is going to be an interesting winter season and rest of the year so stay tuned to our next market update.
Thank you for watching. If you ever have any questions or need any help, I am always available.
Stay tuned, and we'll talk soon.